Best Picture Prediction: The Descendants
The Descendants- This is the safest bet for the Academy, which is weird because it is actually good.
The Artist- This should win, but I’m afraid the backlash of a silent movie winning in 2012 will scare the hell out of voters.
Hugo- The frontrunner in theory since it has the most nominations, but that will matter because the voters hate Martin Scorsese.
Midnight in Paris- It would be a surprise if this won, but a pleasant one. But seriously, these four films are so good that I do not care which one wins.
The Help- Not even southern-white guilt can save this movie.
The Tree of Life- No.
Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close- No!
War Horse- @#$% that horse!
Moneyball- As good as it was, even Brad Pitt forgot about Moneyball.
Best Actor Prediction: George Clooney
George Clooney, The Descendants- He provides a performance so subtle and heart breaking but he also has clout. Seriously, nobody hates this guy.
Jean Dujardin, The Artist- Jean Dujardin deserves every single award he gets, but like every one else who worked on The Artist, he is too obscure.
Gary Oldman, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy- Possible, but if the Academy has no problem with ignoring Oldman since the eighties then why bother giving it to him now?
Brad Pitt, Moneyball- Not happening.
Demian Bichir, A Better Life- Not a chance, but I am guessing that he is happy with just the nomination alone.
Best Actress Prediction: Meryl Streep
Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady- By merit and clout, Streep is the one to beat.
Viola Davis, The Help- Davis just won a Screen Actors Guild Award so she can easily pull an upset.
Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs- It’s Their Time Theory says that if anyone (actor, actress or even a director) who is old enough to retire is guaranteed an Oscar, even if said person is the weakest nominee. That being said I think that Streep and Davis have too much hype at this point.
Michelle Williams, My Week With Marilyn- It is not her time yet.
Rooney Mara, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo- Arguably the best performance on the list, but if there is one thing that voters hate more than Scorsese and young people it is scary young people.
Best Supporting Actor Prediction: Kenneth Branagh
Kenneth Branagh, My Week With Marilyn- This Shakespearean actor is the dark horse but I think he will win through a loophole of the It’s Their Time Theory.
Christopher Plummer, Beginners- In theory, Plummer will win because it is his time, then again,
Nick Nolte, Warrior- it is also his time, but wait.
Max Von Sydow, Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close- It’s his time as well! This is why I hate old actors because voters always need to treat the performance awards like lifetime achievement awards. My theory is that so many pity votes will split between Nolte, Plummer, and Von Sydow that Branagh will win by a narrow margin.
Jonah Hill, Moneyball- Again, the nomination is enough of an award.
Best Supporting Actress Prediction: Octavia Spencer
Octavia Spencer, The Help- Like Davis, she just won a S.A.G Award. Unlike Davis, she does not have to compete with Meryl Streep.
Berenice Bejo, The Artist- Like Dujardin, she is so awesome, but nobody knows her.
Jessica Chastain, The Help- It is less an accolade for this performance but for the seven (count them, seven) films she did this year. She does not need
Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs- The campaign for Albert Nodds is all about Glenn Close, which is leaving McTeer in the dust.
Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids- Ha.
Best Director Prediction: Michel Hazanavicius
Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist- If there is one award that The Artist will get it is Best Director since it is the closest thing to a silver medal.
Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life- No matter how pretentious Terrence Malick is, it does not change the fact that he has made only five feature films in a period of 38 years. They may evoke It’s Their Time Theory just in case he vanishes again.
Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris- Woody Allen is more invested in the screenplay than anything else.
Alexander Payne, The Descendants- Same thing as Woody Allen, most of the creativity is in screenplay, and the rest of the filmmaking is rather plain.
Martin Scorsese, Hugo- Maybe I’m acting like a pessimist but I really think that the voters hate Scorsese. In over four decades he only earned five nominations and won once in 2007 for The Departed. Even then it was probably due to his old age.
Best Original Screenplay Prediction: Midnight in Paris
Midnight in Paris- This is Woody Allen’s fifteenth screenplay nomination, he is going to win.
The Artist- If Woody Allen did not exist then Michel Hazanavicius would win.
Margin Call- Great script, Woody Allen is still going to win.
A Separation- Rarely does a foreign film get nominated let alone win outside the Best Foreign Feature category. Also, Woody Allen.
Bridesmaids- No matter how eloquent a script is written, any script that has this sentence “She then releases her bowels in the bathroom sink out of desperation.” is not going to win. Not even Woody Allen can pull off that stunt and win.
Best Adapted Screenplay Prediction: The Descendants
The Descendants- It’s Alexander Payne. If The Descendants were not based on a book then there would be an actual competition.
Moneyball- Lets keep this short. Aaron Sorkin won last year, Payne.
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy- Payne.
The Ides of March- Payne.
Best Animated Feature Prediction: Rango
Rango- Since originality (and sadly, CGI) always wins this category then this acid trip should win.
Chico & Rita- The problem with foreign films, especially animated films with adult themes, is that they are impossible to find until after the award ceremony. So is it any good? No idea, but based on the reviews and nominations for other ceremonies, it is definitely a dark horse.
A Cat In Paris- Was this even released in the USA?
Kung Fu Panda 2 and Puss in Boots- Double nominees always cancel each other out.
Best Original Score Prediction: The Artist
Ludovic Bource, The Artist- Yes, yes, yes!
Howard Shore, Hugo- Maybe
Alberto Iglesias, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy- Maybe not.
John Williams The Adventures of Tintin- double nominees always cancel each other out.
John Williams, War Horse- Also, %@&$ that horse!
Best Original Song Prediction: The Muppets
"Man or Muppet," The Muppets- It is one of most the successful family films of the year. Of course it will win.
"Real in Rio," Rio- How did this get nominated?
Best Film Editing Prediction: The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo- While this is just as seamless as Hugo and The Artist; but it will win due to having the best pacing out of all the nominees.
Hugo- The editor is Thelma Schoonmaker, the queen of her medium. If clout actually effects this category then Hugo may actually win.
The Artist- In a film without sound, the visual aspect had to be structured with even greater care than normal. The editing is done perfectly but again... clout.
Moneyball- "Thanks for coming,
The Descendants- and don't forget your gift basket."
At this point I will keep it short.
Best Foreign Language Film of the Year
A Separation (Iran)- If the screenplay nomination implies anything.
Best Achievement in Art Direction
Hugo- Even the dumbest Scorsese haters cannot ignore these gorgeous set pieces.
Best Achievement in Cinematography
The Tree of Life- As much as I hate this movie, it pretty much won this award when the previews were shown.
Best Achievement in Costume Design
Hugo- The Dickens inspired period dress plus the campy recreations of Melies' studio costumes are too awesome to ignore.
Best Achievement in Makeup
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2- Come on.
Best Achievement in Sound Editing
Drive- Out of pity, I guess.
Best Achievement in Sound Mixing
Hugo- because it sounds great? I do not know what good audio mixing sounds like.
Best Achievement in Visual Effects
Rise of the Planet of the Apes- Motion capture technology for the win.
Best Documentary Feature
Best Documentary Short Subject
Best Animated Short Film
Best Live Action Short Film... I will need to get to these later because I have not seen any of the nominees. I really should stop being topical because this is exhausting. So until next year, I'm sticking to the classics.